A Deep Dive into Alex Verdugo

This past offseason the Yankees made a rare trade with their heated rival, the Boston Red Sox, for Outfielder Alex Verdugo. This move was hated by Yankee fans, who felt as if the Yankees were trading for a below average outfielder that they have had to hate for the past 3 years, but the truth is far from that. Here will take a deep dive into what the Yankees gave up for Verdugo, what Verdugo has done in his 5+ years at the MLB level, and what he can be as a Yankee.

On December 5th 2023, the New York Yankees made a deal that shocked Yankee Fans across the globe, they had acquired the Red Sox's starting Left Fielder in a trade for Richard Fitts, Nicholas Judice, and Greg Weissert. The initial reaction from fans was outrage, as a player who was a part of hated rivalry, and had previous interactions with fans was now a New York Yankee. Fans wondered if Verdugo was even worth what they Yankees had given up to get him.

The first name that Yankee fans recognized on the offer sheet was reliever Greg Weissert, who had made relief appearances as a Yankee in both 2022 and 2023, posting a career ERA of 4.60 in 31 innings. Although a small sample size, Weissert showed that he was a decent reliever for the Yankees, but not quite the high leverage reliever that is so high in demand around the MLB these days.

Both Fitts, and Judice were pitchers that were included in the trade for Verdugo, and still have yet to make their MLB debut. Richard Fitts is a 24 year old starting pitcher who spent all of 2023 at AA-Somerset, where he threw a 3.48 ERA in 152 innings, which is definitely promising to see for any organization. While Judice's highest level of competition was the NCAA level where he threw 53 innings to a 4.42 ERA for a small school, Louisiana-Monroe.

While both Fitts and Judice, are promising young pitchers, the fact of the matter is they are still a few years away from MLB level, and with that there is still no guarantee that either would eventually make it to the show, let alone succeed.

Another reason that Yankee fans were skeptical about acquiring Verdugo was because they saw him as the "bust" prospect that never lived up to what was expected of him after being traded for Mookie Betts. However, that is simply untrue, as Verdugo has put up great seasons over his career.

Since becoming a full time MLB player in 2019, Verdugo has put up a slashline of .283/.338/.432 (.770 OPS) and averages 11 HRs per year. Aside from his low HR totals Verdugo has put up some pretty solid numbers (that surprisingly hasn't earned him an All-Star bid yet). However, his 2023 was slightly below those numbers, as in his age 27 season he only hit .263, but with similar on-base and slugging numbers. Even with the lower than normal batting average in 2023, it seems to be no cause for concern as even the best players of all time are prone to a slight down tic from year to year. In fact 2023 was more of an unlucky season for Verdugo as he had an expected batting average of .278, the same expected number he had in 2022 where he hit .280.

Looking even farther back, 2023 was the only season Verdugo has had a batting average below .280, hitting .294, .308, .289, and .280 in 2019-2022 respectively, which shows just how consistent of a hitter he has been throughout his career.

However, the one aspect of his game that has been noted by critics has been his lack of power at the plate. Never surpassing the 13 home run mark (he hit 13 in both 2021 and 2023), is likely what has been keeping Verdugo off of many All-Star teams and preventing him from Silver Slugger awards, but it might not be entirely his fault.

Playing the majority of his games at Fenway Park from 2020-2023 as a left handed hitter has likely taken away a few home runs from Verdugo. Although the right field foul pole is only 302 feet away from the plate at Fenway, a drastic angle of the wall moves the fence to nearly 400 feet away from the plate in the power-alleys, as seen here :

This large gap takes away home runs from many left handed hitters at Fenway, as only a true moonshot can make it all the way over the fence, and could be the reason as to why Verdugo hasn't put up the HR totals that have been expected of him.

Yankee Stadium on the other hand, is one of the best places to hit for a left handed hitter, as it's "short porch" in RF has become famous for its short distance to the plate, and inflated home run numbers for left handed hitters. Playing in Yankee Stadium could be exactly what Verdugo has needed to have a breakout season, as many flyouts, or doubles off the wall will likely become homeruns with the shorter Yankee Stadium wall distance, in fact this picture shows just how drastic the difference between Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium is:

Now I know that we can talk hypothetically all day about what could or couldn't happen with Verdugo playing 81 games in Yankee Stadium this year, and that why we have to look at some of the data given to us on baseballsavant.mlb.com.

One of the first things you notice when looking at Verdugo's page is his expected batting average, (in the 86th percentile), and his Chase/K rate where he is in the 85th percentile for his chase rate and the 88th percentile for his K-rate, two things the Yankees need. One of the biggest problems for the Yankees over the course of the past few seasons has been the lack of contact hitting and the high K-rate that seems to often times send them home in the playoffs. Verdugo offers to bring them much needed bat-on-ball skills that the Yankees have been missing these past few years.

One area of concern looking at this page is Verdugo's barrel rate that is in the 18th percentile among MLB hitters. This could be one of the driving forces behind the aforementioned struggle Verdugo's low power numbers, but as we will see this might not be as big of a concern as one may think.

Looking at Verdugos 2022 (Left) and 2023 (Right) spray charts overlaid with Yankee Stadium tells the us just how much playing 81 games in Yankee Stadium could help Verdugo this year.

As you can see in both pictures, verdugo can hit the ball all over the field, for both singles and doubles, but all of his home runs are pulled to Right Field. Another thing you notice while looking at those HRs, is the amount of flyouts or doubles that would be HRs in Yankee Stadium. This graph shows that Verdugo could hit about 5-8 HRs more this year, than previous years , due to the more hitter friendly short porch.

In conclusion, Alex Verdugo was a great addition to the Yankees, filling a spot in LF that had been a problem for the Yankees in recent years. The top notch contact ability, low strikeout rate, and solid defense is something that the Yankees absolutely needed from a LF this year, and looks to be getting this upcoming season. Along with help from the short porch, Verdugo might be able to put up some power numbers that make him one of the better outfielders in the AL.